Good Weather Reported for the Summit Push! (update 2)

update 2: 50+ climbers to South Col on Sat May 15, few, if any, went for summit as winds picked up. Look for big Sun night, Nepal time with summits Mon morning assuming weather holds. Next big window now May 24(?).

update: as we approach midnight Saturday at the South Col, some teams are delaying summit push to start Sunday night Nepal time since winds have kicked up a tad.

After a week of consternation about the weather, so far it looks like the forecasts of a lull are right on schedule. Multiple teams are in position for Sunday and Monday morning, Nepal time, summits from the south.

From the north, I have received reports of several climbers looking at summits for May 17 including Julio Bird and David Liano. They are not counting on the ropes being fixed. I assume (my assumption) that the Tibetan Sherpas are pushing hard to get the lines fixed during this window. I also assume if there are some climbers going today, there are many more not reported yet.

As I have been reporting all week, reading the weather on Everest is difficult as . Even seasoned climbers and meteorologists note it as a difficult task. Perhaps only K2 is more difficult to forecast amongst the big Himalayan Hills. I am told the issue is not the big picture but the details. Yes, there will be wind but how high and when is a challenge to accurately predict in minute detail.

Almost every company noted this weekend’s window so that was unanimous, the difference was how long the window would last. For a large team that might incur delays at the notorious bottle necks (Hillary Step, Cornice traverse, etc.) they felt the window was too short. So some guide companies waited. Seasoned Everest veteran, Dave Hahn, posted this update for his RMI team:

But of course, the weather isn’t quite stable enough yet for that last climb. Jet stream winds continue to scour the upper mountain. Basecamp has been uncharacteristically breezy and cool for the past few days, although not unpleasant. There is hope for a break in the winds in a week or so, which… as it turns out… coincides with the dates we’ve always assumed would work for our team anyway. A few teams are reportedly up at Camp III now and set on finding a lull in these next few days. We wish them luck and salute their boldness… but we don’t envy them. The mountain is tougher in tough conditions.

As I have said before, reading weather data is both a science and an art form. Leaders must take into account not only the data, but also integrate that with their own observations and experience. Then they factor in the skills of their team and make a decision.

The Malta Everest team reported in from Camp 3 noting acceptable winds on their trip up the Lhotse Face. Jamie Clark with Hanesbrands checked in with this Tweet:

Team at Camp IV. Everybody’s feeling good. It’s very cold and windy, but we’re happy in our homes set up by the Sherpas.

So we have multiple teams looking at a summit bid over the next 24 hours including Peak Freaks, Summit Climb, Hanesbrands, Dream Guides, Malta Everest and some independent climbers.

An update from Team Jordan Romero on Everest North. They have left Chinese Base Camp and are at ABC. This from their Facebook page:

Jordan leads the team the whole 25km straight to ABC. Feels like home again. Kid is on fire. Legs, Lungs and Heart are in PRIME condition. We could hardly stay with him. Confidence is right where it needs to be. Hang tight for our summit bid. Could be soon

In a must read piece, 19 time Everest summiter, Apa Sherpa, has a nice Q&A with fans. He is going for number 20 and is at a high camp on the south today. I liked this particular interaction in this is the Blog of the Day.

Which of the 19 times you’ve already summited has been the most meaningful and why?

Apa: The most memorable was my first time summiting Mount Everest. The first time was better than any time since then.

Safe climbing to everyone high on the mountain.

Climb On!

Alan