Monsoon Watch

A huge wave of climbers on both sides of Everest have moved to their respective Advanced Base Camps. Many have declared a summit day of May 22nd but are monitoring the weather closely.

This season is beginning to look identical to 2009 when bad weather basically shut Everest down around May 23rd and eventually delayed departures from base camps by almost week due to the heavy snow. Leaders who were there last year want to avoid a repeat, try especially on summit night.

Mountain Trip, led by Scott Woolums with climbers Cindy Abbott and Paul & Denise Fejtek are looking at this weekend but have not pinned down a summit date. They explain:

We are still confident that the decrease in winds forecast over the 22, 23, 24 will hold a good summit day for us. But we also have our Quiji board, tarot cards and our lucky dice! We are not being elusive with exactly when we are going, its just as the date gets closer, the forecasts become much more accurate. To say we are going say on the 24th would be reckless as things are changing rapidly by the day. One factor that will play a big role over the next week is a large tropical depression that’s formed in the Bay of Bengal and basically is heading our way. We may see precip and cloud from this as early as the 21st. This is the same type of storm that shut the mountain down last year with a lot of snow! Way to early to predict what will happen with this, but we are watching closely.

On the north, an identical situation. Gabriel Filippi made this plan:

I am getting ready for the summit push.  I will leave around noon, and climb to camp 1 (7100m) hoping for the weather to hold.  Strong winds are in the forecast until Friday night, and snow moves in on Saturday. Therefore, I am aiming to be at the last camp for the very small window during the night of the 21 to the 22, where no wind and no snow are expected.  Clearly, things can change fast on a mountain, and the very notion of  prediction is almost ironic.  I will stay alert…. and optimistic!

Looking at the weather that is playing a huge role in summit plans; IMG’s Eric Simonson posted this update on their blog that a monsoon in the Bay of Bengal is forming and moving north towards Everest. Eric posted:

We are tracking tropical cyclone Laila in the Bay of Bengal. Our longtime IMG weather forecaster Michael Fagin (www.everestweather.com) forwards us this satellite photo (courtesy of Meteorological Forecasting Division, Government of Nepal).

As this storm moves north, we are hoping it will be pushed east by the jet stream, missing the Everest area!

So we might see a rush to the top similar to last year, 2009. Regular followers will remember that Himex actually sent their team up a bit before schedule to miss the heavy stuff. Summit night of May 22, 2009 was a tough one with stiff winds and snowfall.

Dave Hahn commented last year on his summit night as the cyclone brought huge changes to Everest (remember this was 2009, not this year):

We passed the other climbing teams, one by one, as we went up the face in the night and just as dawn was beginning to the East we overtook a final team at 28,000 ft and felt fully in control of our pace and destiny as we took on the South Summit.  As daylight came on, I knew it was one of the prettiest mornings I’d seen from up high.  But I didn’t reach for my camera.  The morning was pretty because there were clouds at many levels and in many directions.  I didn’t take pictures for the same reason I wouldn’t if I saw a large tiger coming my way with fangs barred.

It was clear that our good weather window was closing and we needed to move fast and hard if we wanted to squeeze in a summit.  We felt the full force of the winds as we crested the South Summit, but all were strong and all nodded their heads when I pointed across the crazy traverse topping the Kangshung and Southwest Faces and leading to the Hillary Step and the summit.  We went for it, but even before we’d scrambled up the Hillary Step, clouds had covered the mountaintop.  Visibility was poor at 6:45 AM when we stepped up to the summit.  Most of us kept our packs on, knowing our stay would be short.  It was not a day for photos and flags… just a few handshakes and hugs and we were out of there.  We made quick time back down through the storm to high camp.  Lucky.

You can read Dave’s excellent description of how the cyclone’s impact hit Base Camp last year.

Of course it can snow all it wants once the climbers are down!

Many teams on the south are  looking to start their summit bid on Friday, May 21s which would have them on top Saturday morning, May 22nd between 6:00 AM to 10:00AM, normally.

• Apa Sherpa 21st
• Chad Kellogg 22nd
• Jordan Romero May 23rd
• Alpine Ascents 22nd
• Adventure Consultants-22nd
• Altitude Junkies 22nd
• IMG 22nd, 23rd
• Adventure Dynamics 23rd
• 7 Summits Club 22nd, 23rd

The only team still holding their cards close to their vest is Himex which is normal operating procedure for them.

You can see the latest radar image for Cyclone Laila aka 01B through this link that the feeder bands are approaching Nepal.

It is not time to worry, but it is time to pick up the pace a bit.

Climb On!

Alan