K2 Summer 2022: Weekend Update July 10: Deaths, Rescues and Summits

It’s been a dramatic week in the Pakistani mountains. We saw summits on a couple of 8000ers, climbers in trouble, and tragically two deaths. The weather is currently keeping the K2 teams at base camp but look for a rush starting later this next week—all in all, a normal season thus far, despite the record number of climbers.

Big Picture – Will 2022 K2 be like Everest 2019?

As I’ve mentioned multiple times, Pakistan has taken a page out of Nepal’s tourism book and issued permits to anyone and everyone this season. Some reports say 1,400, others closer to 1,000, but there are at least twice the number of tourists in the Northern Terorities than ever before.

Among these drivers of these crowds is pent-up demand from COVID and aggressive marketing from five Nepali operators: 8K Expeditions, Elite Expeditions, Imaging Nepal, Pioneer Adventures, and Seven Summits Treks. Combined, these account for 253 people – clients and support of mostly Sherpas from Nepal. However, the western operators are also cashing in with Maddison Mountaineering and Furtenbach Adventures, accounting for 54 spots on the mountains.

Now, is this too many people spread across five 8000-meter peaks? The answer is it depends. Taking Everest as an example, these days, we see 300, 500, or even 700 people climbing from the Nepal side each spring season. This year, 2022 (click to read my analysis), I estimate 325 clients supported by 500 Sherpas were on the Nepal side and 640 summited Everest with no serious crowding issues. These are huge mountains that can accommodate lots of people – spread out.

The problem occurs when there are only a few suitable weather days to summit, i.e., winds under 30 mph. In 2019 (click to read my analysis,) we saw a nightmare situation with only three good days for 600 people; thus, long lines from the South Summit to the Summit resulted in 660 summits and nine deaths. Note that in my judgment, four of the eleven were ‘crowd-related’ deaths and an additional seven with ‘low-cost’ operators.

So just looking at K2 because it is the steepest of Pakastani’s 8000ers with the smallest spots for tents at the traditional camps, will the estimated 250 to 350 climbers experience an Everest 2019 scenario, especially at the traditional crowded spots like House’s Chimney, and the Bottleneck? Well, if K2 behaves like it traditionally has with short weather windows between strong wind and snow storms, yes. But, if teams can coordinate summit pushes and tent space, things might go smoother than expected. I’ve been told teams are communicating well and sharing tents thus far. If this turns out to be true, look for many leaders to jump in front of the summit parade and claim it as their own.

Weather And Comms

On a side note, it appears communication, at least using the 4G mobile network, is back up and running; no word on the mysterious satellite disruptions. Also, the overall weather this season has been significantly warmer or should I say milder than usual, making for some sloshy climbing conditions. Cleary climate change is having an impact on the world’s mountains. The last time I checked, snow does not like warm temperatures, and it brings out the rocks!

Chris Tomer of Tomer Weather solutions is providing professional, human-curated weather forecasts to multiple teams in the Karakorum. He tells me that after a long stretch leading up to this unsettled period, the area basically had no jet and abnormally warm temps. The freezing level was running 20k each day and will now start to fall. He went on to predict:

Unsettled period with jet overhead and snow likely 7/11-7/16. At times, there is a capping layer with snow below 7000m and drier above, but it might not hold 7/14-7/15. Strong wind 30-60mph at higher camps entire period.

K2 – Ready for the Summit but Holding

To start, it appears only the Abruzzi route, aka SE Ridge, which is being used this year, and not the Cesen as it’s deemed too avalanche-prone; thus, all the teams are competing for space at the camps.

We are getting hints at how teams deal with the record crowds and limited spaces – dig more platforms and make more camps! First off, the second photo taken by South African Warren Eva this week shows about 20 tents at the traditional Camp 1, around 20,000 feet/6100-meters. However, there is a second Camp 1, aka the so-called “Japanese” Camp, at 5800-meters, about 300 meters or 1,000 lower than the traditional Camp 1, over an hour climb. There is a semi-flat spot just behind a large rock outcropping that is suitable for a few tents.

Garrett Maddison told me that he is letting other teams use their tents. He said he was among the first to set up the higher camps and dig platforms for the tents. The traditional Camp 1 can accommodate around 20 tightly spaced tents (if you dig more platforms), whereas, in the other camp, there are around 10, suggesting that about 60 to 90 people could squeeze in for the night using both camps.

Click this map to see the locations of the “Chinese” camps

Another camp of concern is C2 at 22,000 feet/6700-meters. As you can see in this photo I took in 2014, it’s larger than C1 and can hold around 25 tents with 50 to 75 people. A lower C2 below House’s Chimney is often used as an overflow. It is only about 200 feet lower. So in both of these situations, lower C1 and lower C2, it they help with the crowds but make the climbing day longer between C1 and C2 and C2 and C3. But if you can’t climb another hour of climbing higher, you probably shouldn’t be on K2.

One team that’s been fun to follow is from South Africa. Visit their team Facebook page for several nice videos. Unfortunationally, one team member, Robby Kojetin wisely returned home after developing HAPE. I appreciate how member Allan Dickinson described his experience:

Dawa Sherpa of Seven Summits Treks noted: “All of our team members and Sherpas are at basecamp, all completed their acclimatization rotation, Sherpas deposited oxygen / tents at C3 and now we are waiting for summit push! The team will wait at BC at least for a week, as the forecast indicates unfair weather conditions.” Look for these teams to attempt the K2 summit:

• 8K Expeditions (Nepal): 37
• Elite Expeditions (Nepal): 53
• Furtenbach Adventures (Austria): 30
• Madison Mountaineering (US): 24
• Mingma G’s Imagina Nepal (Nepal): 57
• Pioneer Adventure (Nepal): 42
• Seven Summits Treks (Nepal): 64
• Adventure Tours Pakistan (Pakistan): 6
• Alpine Adventure Guide (Pakistan): 21
• Lela Peak Expedition (Pakistan): 39
• Summit Karakoram (Pakistan): 19
• Karakorum Expeditions (Pakistan)

Again, teams could pull off a record summit year on K2 if they communicate, coordinate, and compromise. But if teams turn the summit push into a free-for-all, then look for the same stories we heard in 2019, winter, and summer about stolen tents, oxygen, lack of space, five people in a two-person tent, you know, general chaos in the high camps.

Nanga Parbat – Summits, But No More?

It looks like over 26 summits this past week on what is considered one of the most difficult and dangerous 8000er of all 14 could be all for this season. This is an unusually high number for NP but can be attributed to Nepali companies using their 80000er formula to get clients to the top. Usually, Nanga sees only professionals or small teams climbing, mostly without supplemental oxygen or HAP/Sherpa support, but times have changed.

People using the formula included Kristin Harila, Grace Tseng, Naoko Watanabe, and Adriana Brownlee. The Sherpas supporting them were Dawa Ongju Sherpa, Pasadawa Sherpa, Chhiring Namgel Sherpa, Nima Gyalzen Sherpa, Ningma Dorje Tamang, Geljie Sherpa, and Sanu Sherpa. The rope fixing team consisted of Pechhumbe Sherpa, Tenjen Sherpa, Tenjing Sherpa, Chhangba Sherpa, and Dawa Nurbu Sherpa, with clients Adrian Laza and Dorota Lidia Samocko also summited, as did Pasang Lhamu Sherpa, who is now the first Nepali female to summit NP.

But those climbing in a traditional style demonstrated how it’s done with no Os or support. Italians Giuseppe Vidoni (no O’s,) Nico Jean, plus French climber Benjamin Védrines (no O’s,) summited on July 4 without fixed ropes. Tiziano Moia was with them but turned back.

However, we may have seen the last of Nanga summits as Tunc Findic and Marco Confortola said rain at 5,000 meters plus avalanche danger and soft snow has made Nanga too dangerous to climb this season, so they are pulling the plug:

Dear friends, followers & supporters! I have decided to end my expedition on Nanga Parbat. Lot of reasons, most important is we are late to start, first due to issue of visas, then the big snowfall. And when we were ready to summit, it was too late: monsoon threatening, the mountain started to fall apart- rain at 5000m! Unsafe and unstable weather& mountain conditions to climb! With my good bro